A simple model of runoff from ungauged basins in West Greenland

Abstract

A simple model of runoff in West Greenland is proposed for the case that glaciers are in a state of balance. The independent variables in the model are estimated annual precipitation and evaporation while model parameters are evaluated by analyses of precipitation series from Greenland, and mass balance series from other parts of the world. The model ean be applied to ungauged basins for preliminary calculations of mean mnoff, reservoir capacities and relative error in mean runoff. Application of the model to sixteen proposed hydropower projects in West Greenland shows an order-of-magnitude agreement with earlier estimates. However, a more detailed analysis of runoff from Johan Dahl Land confirms that the mnoff there is less than originally estimated. The proposed reservoir appears to be adequate for 30-year storage but the design yield of the project must be reduced for safety. The shortcomings of the model should be obvious. They ean be best overcorne by an improved knowledge of hydrological conditions in the country resulting from systematic field observations.